A new Fleet Forecast from Cirium has revealed that about 44,500 new aircraft worth US$2.9 trillion will be delivered globally over the next two decades. By ChatGPT*
The forecast, published by Ascend by Cirium – the consultancy arm of aviation analytics firm Cirium, is an independent projection of the global passenger and freighter market for the next 20 years.
Despite the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the report presents a positive long-term outlook for the aviation industry, with 20-year aircraft deliveries predicted to be just 1 per cent lower globally than predicted a year ago. Global aviation activity is predicted to reach 2019 levels in October 2023.
The forecast also predicts that single-aisle jets will account for 70 per cent of passenger aircraft deliveries by 2041 and that 88 per cent of the current passenger fleet will be retired from passenger service by 2041. In addition, the study estimates that over 3,650 freighters will be delivered over the next 20 years.
Rob Morris, Ascend by Cirium’s global head of consultancy, says: “The new Cirium Fleet Forecast shows a positive long-term outlook for aviation. The industry is undergoing structural changes, but remains on course to return to traditional growth paths by 2025.
“The global passenger fleet will be required to increase by around 22,000 aircraft to service passenger traffic, which we predict to grow 3.6 per cent annually to reach 47,700 aircraft by the end of 2041. These new aircraft will be required to meet demand for air travel, but also to replace less efficient, older-generation types.”
The Asia-Pacific region is projected to be the key growth area for new deliveries, driven by China. The country is forecast to have the highest annual passenger traffic growth rate at over 6 per cent and will account for 19 per cent of deliveries in 2041, ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries, which will have a combined share of 22 per cent.
North American and European airlines are projected to account for 21 per cent and 17 per cent of deliveries, respectively. Middle East airlines will take 7 per cent of deliveries, accounting for 14 per cent in value terms due to the rich mix of higher value twin-aisle deliveries.
The forecast also predicts that demand for single-aisle jets will drive fleet growth, with the single-aisle fleet set to grow by 3.7 per cent annually, as compared to 3.2 per cent for twin-aisles.
The regional aircraft fleet is expected to grow more modestly, at a rate of 1.1 per cent per year, with the turboprop fleet predicted to grow at a faster rate within the regional sector.
Airbus and Boeing will remain the two largest commercial aircraft OEMs, delivering an estimated 80 per cent of aircraft between them and 88 per cent by value through 2041. However, there is US$360 billion of demand for other OEMs or new programs.
The pressure to replace older, less-efficient types of aircraft will also increase, with close to 88 per cent of the current passenger fleet expected to be retired from passenger service by 2041.
Overall, the new Cirium Fleet Forecast provides an encouraging outlook for the aviation industry and its recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. The forecast predicts strong demand for new aircraft over the next two decades, driven by growth in the Asia-Pacific region and an increasing demand for single-aisle jets.
[*Globetrender is experimenting with using Elon Musk’s new AI chatbot ChatGPT to write news stories and assist with research. We believe that this is a useful new technological tool that can by used by journalists. All copy has been edited by a human before publishing.]