New border rules requiring travellers to disclose social media accounts could make the US feel 'less welcoming' and damage the tourism economy, with research warning of major job losses and reduced visitor spending. Olivia Palamountain reports

The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) has warned that proposed changes to the US ESTA programme, requiring wider social media disclosures, could directly reduce international travel demand and materially weaken the US travel and tourism economy.

The findings are based on a multi-country survey of travellers across ESTA-eligible markets, combined with detailed economic impact modelling assessing potential effects on international arrivals, visitor spending and wider tourism-related GDP and employment in the US.

WTTC's analysis, in partnership with GSIQ and Oxford Economics, shows that awareness of the proposed policy change is already high, with two-thirds (66%) of respondents saying they are familiar with the potential change, suggesting impacts on travel sentiment and behaviour will be felt quickly if implemented.

Around one-third of respondents (34%) say they would be somewhat or much less likely to visit the US in the next two to three years if the changes are introduced. Only 12% say they would be more likely to visit, resulting in a clear and significant net decline in travel intent.

Beyond travel plans, the research highlights broader perception challenges. Whilst a minority of respondents view the policy as a signal of strength, a larger share say it would make the US feel "less welcoming" and less attractive for both leisure and business travel. More respondents believe the policy would harm US economic prosperity rather than strengthen it, and a majority say it would either have no impact on their personal safety or make them feel less safe whilst travelling in the country.

Gloria Guevara, president and chief executive of WTTC, says: "Security at the US border is vital but the planned policy changes will damage job creation, which the US Administration values so much. Our research finds that over 150,000 jobs could be lost if this policy goes ahead, the same number usually created each quarter in the US. Even modest shifts in visitor behaviour, put off by the planned changes, will have real economic consequences for US travel and tourism, particularly in a highly competitive global market."

When benchmarked against other major destinations, the US entry policy is perceived as significantly more intrusive than those of key competitors, including the UK, Japan, Canada and Western Europe, placing the US at a competitive disadvantage in the global tourism market.

Under a high-impact scenario, the US could receive approximately 4.7 million fewer international arrivals, representing a reduction of 23.7% from ESTA countries in 2026 compared with a business-as-usual baseline. Corresponding losses in visitor spending are estimated at up to US$15.7 billion, with wider travel and tourism GDP losses of US$21.5 billion.

The employment impact could affect as many as 157,000 US jobs, three times the average number of jobs actually created in the US each month in 2025, when 50,000 jobs were created on average each month. These changes would have the effect of lowering US exports for the travel sector and further weakening inbound prospects for a market that has already seen a loss of 11 million visitors between 2019 and 2025.

Guevara says: "WTTC urges US policymakers to carefully assess this policy and its consequences for the economy and jobs. Travel and tourism is a critical driver of the American economy, job creation and international connectivity, with one in three jobs in the world created by the sector."