Zoran Pejović, founder of Paradox Hospitality, explains why it's essential to analyse geopolitical stability, demographic shifts and supply chain realities (rather than trends) to accurately predict the future of travel.

Over the past decade, many travel trends have been confidently predicted, only to collapse under the weight of reality. The industry has a tendency to build narratives that reinforce its own aspirations rather than reflect actual traveller behaviour.

The so-called “revenge travel” boom was expected to permanently transform tourism demand, but it turned out to be a short-lived surge rather than a lasting shift. Business travel was declared obsolete, yet corporate bookings have steadily rebounded. The notion of the “new conscious traveller” promised a movement towards responsible, sustainability-led choices, yet mass tourism hotspots are breaking visitor records.

Digital nomadism was hyped as a revolution that would redefine global mobility, but in reality, the number of people actually working remotely from exotic locations remains extremely small. The travel industry frequently falls into its own bubble, mistaking hopeful predictions for inevitable trends and overlooking the structural forces that shape real-world behaviour.

Looking Beyond the Travel Industry for Trends

To truly understand the trends shaping travel and tourism, it is essential to look beyond the industry itself. Travel does not exist in isolation; it is a response to global forces that dictate where people go, why they travel, and how they engage with destinations. The three most significant forces shaping these movements are geopolitics, demographics and supply chains.

These factors impose real-world constraints, regardless of how the industry chooses to frame its predictions. When I build budgets and plan for different scenarios, I tend to disregard industry trends almost entirely. I do not rely on reports about shifting traveller preferences or the latest consumer behaviour insights.

Instead, I focus on geopolitical stability, demographic shifts and supply chain realities. These forces define what is possible, while industry narratives are often retrospective justifications for what has already happened.

The Constraints of Travel Decisions

Travel is often framed as an exercise in personal choice, yet every decision follows a predefined path shaped by external conditions. The illusion of choice is a by-product of the environment in which those decisions take place. While travellers make choices, those choices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic fluctuations, and social narratives. The same applies to destinations. Their success or decline is not determined solely by marketing strategies or service quality but by their position within the broader global system.

Consider the regions that thrived in a more stable world order. Their rise and fall were never dictated by traveller preference or tourism marketing but by geopolitical stability and economic conditions. The destinations that travellers flock to – and those they abandon – follow patterns outside individual will.

Political tensions in the Red Sea, the war in Ukraine and uncertainty around Taiwan have impacted accessibility. This is not just a logistical issue but also a question of perception. Some destinations suffer from a distorted risk profile, where fear-driven narratives deter visitors despite actual safety.

Others fade from prominence as global attention shifts. This is not necessarily a sign of decline but rather a reflection of changing priorities, economic transformations, or evolving cultural trends.

The Psychology Behind Travel Choices

Psychologists often categorise motivation into two primary types:

1. Promotion-focused – seeking adventure, novelty, and gain.
2. Prevention-focused – prioritising security, familiarity, and risk avoidance.

Travel marketing and consumer choices reflect this balance. Some travellers seek new frontiers and cultural immersion, while others prioritise comfort, convenience, and controlled environments.

In times of stability, people tend to respond to messages about exploration, adventure and new experiences. In periods of uncertainty, however, travellers are drawn to destinations offering security, ease of access, and predictability. This contrast is not absolute – a high-net-worth traveller may still crave adventure, but with the assurance of safety and luxury. Similarly, someone who typically prefers familiarity might still be open to novelty if presented in a structured, predictable way.

For travel brands and destinations, the challenge is to recognise how this balance shifts over time. A strategy that promotes risk and exploration during periods of geopolitical anxiety is unlikely to resonate. At the same time, excessive caution in a confident economic climate may make a destination appear uninspiring.

The Changing Landscape of Travel

Travel is being reshaped by external forces. Supply chain disruptions influence the cost and availability of flights, hotels, and services. Demographic changes are altering the composition of travellers:

• Millennials are entering peak spending years, prioritising experiences over possessions.
• Gen Z travellers have different values, favouring digital integration, purpose-driven travel, and sustainability – though these preferences vary by region and economic status.

Meanwhile, geopolitical realities are redrawing the map of desirability. Some destinations are struggling because economic and political forces have pushed them outside mainstream travel flows. For travel brands, the challenge is to anticipate these shifts rather than merely react to them after the fact.

Understanding the forces at play allows businesses to align with reality rather than chasing trends that no longer apply.

Travel as a Consequence, Not a Cause

Travel does not exist in isolation. It is an effect, not a cause.

Instead of focusing on industry-driven predictions, we must examine the global forces that truly determine where, why, and how people travel. The destinations that thrive are not simply the ones that market themselves best, but those aligned with economic, geopolitical, and demographic realities.

The industry’s tendency to project aspirations onto the future often leads to disappointment. True foresight lies in recognising the structural forces shaping traveller behaviour – not just the narratives that the industry wants to believe.