A Responsible Travel poll of 112 travel companies worldwide finds 80% report lower holiday enquiries since the start of the Iran war, with many seeing no recovery yet. Robbie Hodges reports

A new poll from Responsible Travel suggests the conflict in Iran has had a sharp effect on global travel demand, with many tour operators reporting a clear fall in holiday enquiries since the conflict began.

The poll echoes many of the findings in Globetrender's Executive Travel Pulse survey of C-suite and director-level executives, which gauged industry sentiment towards conflict in the Middle East.

In Responsible Travel's survey of 112 travel companies worldwide, 79.5% said holiday enquiries were down. Almost 60% of respondents, or 59.3%, said enquiries had fallen by 20% or more. More than half, 56%, said there was still “no sign” of improvement.

The findings point to a broad impact that stretches well beyond the Middle East. While every company whose tours are based in the Middle East reported a drop in enquiries of 20% or more, the same was also true for 68% of operators with Asia tours and 52% of those focused on Europe. This reflects Globetrender's Executive Travel Pulse in which executives identified regional contagion – that is, "a conflict in one geography depresses demand across an entire hemisphere" – as one of the biggest risks of the fallout.

Some businesses in Responsible Travel's research reported an even more severe picture. A number of companies claim to have received no bookings at all since the outbreak of the conflict, while others were dealing with cancellation rates as high as 90%. For smaller operators, that kind of disruption can have an immediate effect on income, staffing and local supply chains.

The poll also shows that travel companies are not responding in the same way. Some respondents said they were worried about the longer-term impact of instability, as well as rising costs linked to the conflict. These pressures include higher operating expenses and weaker consumer confidence, both of which can reduce bookings over a sustained period.

Others were more optimistic. Some companies said they expected interest to return within weeks, especially if the ceasefire holds and travellers begin to feel more certain about booking again. A number of operators in places not directly affected by the conflict also believed they could see a short-term rise in trade as travellers switch plans to destinations seen as less risky.

One practical measure appears to be helping. Some respondents said flexible cancellation and postponement policies had reassured customers and supported bookings. In a period of uncertainty, the option to change plans without major financial loss can make people more willing to commit to a trip.

That matters for a business such as Responsible Travel, which works with more than 450 travel company partners worldwide, including many small independent local operators. When holiday enquiries fall, the effects are not limited to tour brands or booking platforms. They can also reach guides, drivers, guesthouse owners and community businesses that depend on tourism income.

Tim Williamson, customer director at Responsible Travel, says: “The human costs of war are incalculable, and the announcement of a ceasefire is extremely welcome. From an industry perspective, the drop in tourist numbers – as well as rising costs associated with a prolonged conflict – hits small businesses and communities dependent on tourism the hardest. We’ve heard first-hand from many of our members worldwide of the significant impacts already felt and concern for livelihoods. It’s imperative that this ceasefire becomes permanent and stability resumes.”

The message from the poll is that the travel sector remains highly sensitive to geopolitical shocks, even when operations continue far from the centre of a conflict. For many companies, the recent fall in holiday enquiries is not only a sign of weaker demand but also a reminder of how quickly global events can affect traveller behaviour. Much now depends on whether the ceasefire leads to lasting stability and a return of confidence in the weeks ahead.